Market Predictions are like Opinions which are like Arses..

~ Yes you are correct.. A raccoon is very much like an Investor..

You might have noticed A&G has changed a little bit in the last few weeks..   That we have been a little bit less fact and statistic driven and more philosophical and analytical of the bigger picture..

Or who knows.. maybe you didn't notice at all..

The shift is temporary and with good reason.  As explained before, once the Republicans caved to the President last month by way of another can-kicking compromise to keep government fully open until mid January '14 and delay a debt ceiling vote till February 2014..

Well.. there really wasn't going to be much to report on the news front worth writing or worth you reading...

~ Aww he's so cute.. We're going to call him 'Warren Buffett, Jr.'

You either love Obamacare or you despise it;  you're either benefiting from an exaggerated stock market or you're patiently waiting for it to crash..

So unless something happens in the news genuinely important to write on, A&G will be taking more of a broader view of things i.e. where we are as a nation and where we're headed, rather then vent on the day to day nothingness of the news.

Today we're going to address head-on this notion that the artificial, manipulated market can only keep going up, up, up!  Today 16k.. tomorrow the Moon..

This is what experts will tell you.. the Jim Cramers of the world.. 'Keep investing.. don't stop.. don't take your foot off the brakes for a moment.. Just wait until the recovery Really begins then things will skyrocket!...'

This is pretty much the consensus of the "experts"

Oh sure there's a few contrarians who warn of gloom of doom..  Most of them out there have financial agendas.

The 'Positive Petes' make a killing as the market goes up and the 'Debbie Downers' will make a killing when there is a hard drop..

Honestly we at A&G are one of the very few outlets with no stake in the game either way.. Gave all that up a while ago..  Decided one day that 'hamster wheel' wasn't an attractive way to live life.

~ What is trash and filth to us, is deliciousness to our raccoon friend..

It is important to remember that experts not only can be wrong but often are...  Few to none predicted the market crash of October 1929 which brought about a global Depression..  Few saw 2008.

Few also saw the market free-fall of 2000 due to the dot.com bubble bursting into flames.

At the beginning of 2000, the Dow closed at 11,500.

Within 3 months the market dropped over 1300 points.

This may not seem like such a big deal currently but the market was not manipulated directly by the Fed back then so these valuation drops were big deals..  Oh sure the Fed had their filthy paws in the market but it was more subtle and shady.

The dot.com burst along with 9/11 a year later pushed the Dow to an October 2002 low of 7,286 (a 37% decline in stock value over a 2 year period)

So what exactly did the so-called 'experts' predict at the end of 1999?   Well, let's watch..    The following clip is from the last episode of 'Wall Street Week with Lou Rukeyser' for the year..

It's two minutes long..  If all the technical specifics the panel is discussing seem confusing, don't worry.. just focus on the nauseating positivity and the fact these are people who make their living and built their reputations on always being in the Know..

Click on video to watch ~

All those on the panel were confident cock-sure bleepity bleeps because they believed the all-powerful Fed led by that genuinely disgusting and wretched human being Alan Greenspan would keep manipulating interest rates and other chicanery to allow the market to grow indefinitely..

Obviously it failed then in 2000.. Failed in 2008.. Will fail in 2014..

When it comes to your money.. your investments.. there is no sage or true all-knowing 'oracle' who can predict the future and see all the twists, turns and bumps in the road..

Sometimes you have to trust your instincts.. What you see and hear and read..

And the beauty of it is if there is a calamity of some kind, you can give yourself a big pat on the back or a nice 'Well Done!' butt slap that you protected yourself before hand..

And if you didn't well the fault is solely yours.